CAMPAIGN 2004
October 21, 2004
The 2004 Presidential election has all the indications
of being very close. At the moment President Bush and Senator Kerry
are tied in all of the major naitonal polls. President Bush goes into
the election with a certain advantage in the electoral college meaning
he should do very well in the South, the Prairie states, and the Mountain
states. His secure base at the moment appears to be in the range of
200 electoral votes. Interestingly, Senator Kerry has closed down all
of his ads in the South including North Carolina. Senator Kerry has
a secure base of about 100 electoral votes from the West Coast and New
England. President Bush has put his campaign along the West Coast on
hold to see if there will be any opening in California, Oregon, and
Washington which will in all liklehood not develop. In effect both candidates
have very secure bases but the President's base is much larger. The
magic number for victory of course is 270 electoral votes. The popular
vote is irrelevant. President Bush and Senator Kerry are battling even
in the Midwest. If the election were held today my guess is President
Bush would win every state he won in 2000 minus New Hampshire (4 electoral
votes) and would receive 274 electoral votes. Senator Kerry would win
264 electoral votes. If a state as small as Nevada turned to Senator
Kerry the election would be tied and go to the House of Representatives
where President Bush would win--the House votes one vote per state.
The battleground states are as follows: Florida,
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico,
Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, and New Jersey. The President at the moment
is leading in Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is tied. Florida
is tied. Senator Kerry is winning in New Jersey and Illinois. There
is an opening for Senator Kerry in the West--Nevada, Arizona, Colorado,
and New Mexico. If President Bush wins Florida and one or two of the
battleground Western states and one or two of the other battleground
states he will win. Senator Kerry in effect must have almost a clean
sweep of the doubtful states to prevail.
In summary, my guess is that the election will
not be a rerun of 2000. There will be a clear winner by a small amount
with the winner breaking ahead the last two weeks. It is also quite
possible that President Bush could lose the popular vote considering
the huge popular losses he is likely to suffer in New Jersey, Illinois,
New York and California and win the Presidency considering the large
number of states he is likely to win (at least 30). In short, I have
no idea who will be the next President but if forced I would bet on
President Bush for reasons we will discuss in class. In general President
Bush is doing better with the national electorate in the areas of War
and foreign policy while Senator Kerry is thought to be a more effective
leader in matters related to the domestic economy. President Bush will
receive a slight benefit from the Republican convention but probably
not enough to carry him to victory. The Presidential debates of October
may be the decisive consideration.
Finally, the entire Presidentail race may be decided
by some bizarre event none of us can predict now. A move in the stock
market, capturing bin Laden, bad news from Iraq, Mrs. Bush catching
a cold, Mrs. Kerry having another tantrum, more swift boat news, more
Texas air national guard stories, rumors about affairs, or dirty tricks
by either or both campaigns the last weekend may decide it all. If you
are not terribly interested in politics and have a gentle, calm personality
all of this should be great fun. If on the other hand you tend toward
the neurotic, unstable side of things which is my fate and if you believe
all of this is terribly important and may determine the future of Western
Civilization itself, then the next 7 weeks will be a nightmare. Remember
what Prime Minisiter Churchill said: "clearly democracy is the
worst possible form of government, unless you consider all the others."
The Congressional election is slightly clearer.
According to Charlie Cook and he is never wrong, there are only 12 competitive
races out of the entire 435 seats being contested. If the Democrats
won all of these seats which they will not, they would still not control
the House. The Congress will remain Republican. The Senate is a closer
call. 34 Senators are up for election. The Republicans currently hold
the Senate by a margin of 51 to 48 (1 Independent). My guess is the
Republicans will hold the Senate because 19 of the 34 contested seats
are currently held by Democrats meaning they have more at risk and 24
of the 34 seats are in states George Bush won in 2000. Bet on a Republican
Senate.
As you know the Supreme Court remains moderately
conservative (Republican) which means that if Senator Kerry becomes
President he will have a great deal of difficulty governing. Moreover,
if President Bush is reelected his majorities in the Congress will be
very narrow and the High Court is unpredicable which means he also will
have some difficulty governing. In the end the whole situation is perfect
for the Americans who do not like government to work well in any case
and seem to enjoy watching Washington, D.C. flounder in madness. One
totally positive note: the new President will still be able to dominate
the political establishment in terms of foreign policy and war which
means we should be able to go on with our curious form of political
madness at home and save the world at the same time.
Dr. Stoddard, September, 2004--frequent updates
to follow so that I am not trapped by these idiotic comments.
Note--Sept. 6, President Bush apparently gained
a more substantial "bounce" from the Republican Convention
than expected. The Time poll and the Newsweek poll both have him leading
now by 52 % to 41 % with 3 % for Ralph Nader. Interestingly, no incumbent
with any lead after his convention has ever lost the presidency to say
nothing of a 11 % lead. All indications are, however, that the race
is still tied in the most important of the battleground states--Florida,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio. There are further indications that
roughly 46 % of the probable 120 million voters have decided without
qualification to support the President and 46 % intend to vote for Senator
Kerry. The race therefore is down to the 6 % which remain undecided
and more interestingly the undecided vote in only a handful of battleground
states. I doubt the 11 % lead will hold up--the contest remains even.
President Bush does, at least for the moment, have one substantial advantage--there
is little doubt that his campaign dominated by Karl Rove, Special Assistant
to the President, is far better organized, efficient, and effective.
Finally, Rove may have decided to move away from focusing on the undecided
vote and thrown the dice toward bringing out a larger than expected
Republican vote meaning the President may be gambling that he has a
better chance to win with turnout than changing voters leaning toward
Senator Kerry. Time will tell-
September 10--the plot thickens--The Fox News
poll has the President ahead by 4 points while Gallup has the President
leading by 7 %. Fox nevertheless has the President ahead in Ohio by
nearly 12 points, Bush is leading Kerry by almost 14 points in Missouri,
Pennyslvania shows a slight Bush lead and astoundingly the President
is ahead, within the margin of error, in Oregon. Even New Jersey now
appears to be in play with Kerry's lead down to 4 points. All in all
August and early September have been a terrible period for the Kerry
campaign but note the volatility of this entire procedure and note that
there are over 50 days to go. The most vicious part of the campaign
is yet to come but this week illustrates how dismal it may turn out
to be--every major network today ran stories on the President's service
or lack of it in the Air National Guard and a new group of veterans
condeming Senator Kerry for his post Vietnam anti war activites has
started running ads throughout the country. Lastly, Kitty Kelley who
is rather well known for piecing together absurd stories and books has
just released a book proclaiming that the President was a heavy cocaine
user roughly 35 years ago. Be patient the worst is yet to come.
September 16--the latest national polls are over
the board. Gallup has the President ahead by 13 points, Time by 10 points,
and Zoby by 3. What seems noteworthy is that all the polls have the
President ahead but either the pollsters have gone mad or the electorate
is more volatile than most believed. Most disturbing for the Kerry campaign,
the President is starting to pull away in many of the battleground states
such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Wisconsin. The battleground
area is apparently shrinking--if the state polls are correct the President
is clearly now the favorite--his task is to hold on while Senator Kerry
must change things drastically in the next 40 days. In terms of issues
and substance the campaign still has a curious tone--more time is spent
on Vietnam than any current issue. Interestingly and perhaps not surprisingly
both campaigns now talk about little else beyond Iraq and the War on
Terror which up to this point has worked to the President's advantage.
The debates may still be critical--nearly 40 million people are expected
to watch the 90 minute foreign policy debate of September 30--6 pm.
There will be two more presidential debates--October 8 and 11 with one
vice-presidential debate October 5.
September 20--on the eve of the first presidential
debate the President was ahead in the national polls ranging from 2
to 8 points. The battleground areas were down to roughly 10 states--all
were almost even. If the election were held today the President would
win approximately 264 electoral votes with Senator Kerry winning about
150. Senator Kerry can still win but he must now win almost the remaining
battleground states including Florida. The campagin entered a new phase
dominated by the debates. Clearly President Bush is now the favorite
to win but victory is not at all guaranteed. Senator Kerry can still
win with a decisive performance in the debates. The debates will dominate
the campaign until mid October then the truly bizarre part of American
presidentail politics will take over with two weeks of rumors, attacks,
smears, and dirty tricks. Hang on, the fun is just beginning.
The September 30 presidential debate on foreign
policy is generally regarded to have favored Senator Kerry. Most polls
indicated he "won" the debate by about 2 to 1. Interestingly
the national polls that followed the debates are astoundingly confusing.
The Zogby Poll and the Gallup poll have the race now dead even--49 %
for each candidate which if accurate would mean that the debate wiped
out President Bush's lead going into the debate. The Pew poll and the
ABC poll on the other hand still have President ahead by 7 points all
of which means we still don't have any clear idea who is ahead. It may
be worth noting that several Presidents "lost" the first debate
and went on to victory--Presidents Reagan, Carter, Bush (41), and Clinton.
The Vice-Presidential debate of October 5 will probably change little.
The greatest risk is for Senator Edwards who may have presidential ambitions.
Vice-President Cheney obviously does not. Senator Edwards probably can't
help Senator Kerry but his political future may be hanging in the balance.
I can promise you President and Mrs. Clinton will be watching tonight
with keen interest. Remember what happened to Dan Quayle.
The next two presidential debates, October 8 and 11 may be critical.
It will probably still come down to the voters of Ohio, Pennsylvannia,
and Florida. In the end my instinct is that if President Bush wins Florida
he will be reelected and if he loses Florida Senator will be the next
President of the United States.
Note: An interestingly nightmare may be unfolding
in Colorado. According to the polls President Bush is far ahead in Colorado
but the state also has an initiative on the ballot that would end the
"winner take all system." If that initiaitve should pass Colorado
may become the Florida of 2004.
The final two presidential debates were generally
scored as ties. Senator Kerry "won" the snapshot polls taken
after the debates but lost ground in the national tracking polls. In
the end the debates clearly helped Senator Kerry but did not put him
over the top. Interestingly the debates seem to fall in the category
of just another part of the grand scheme of the overall campaigns.
October 24--with just 10 days to go it was perfectly
clear that very little is clear. President Bush is ahead in all of the
naitonal polls but almost all within the margin of error. The final
days went into the trenches and it may turn the winner will be the candidate
who "rents the most vans" meaning the candidate who can best
mobilize his base. Turnout will be decisive.
We have had many close elections in US history
but never an election that was so close for so long. In the end one
of the candidates may still break ahead and win rather substantially
but that will depend on events of the last week. The battleground remains
the same--the primary issue from the beginning has been terrorism and/or
the War in Iraq--the states still in contention are Ohio, Pennsylvannia,
Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida,
Colorado, and Iowa. There are several combinations of how these states
may vote. You should note that the conventional wisdom may be wrong.
It was generally assumed the battle within the battle was Ohio, Florida
and Pennsylvannia. Oddly President Bush with one week to go is doing
surprisingly well in four "Gore" states--New Hampshire, Iowa,
Minnesota, Wisconsin. He is even leading, according to some state polls,
in Michigan where Nader is on the ballot as compared to Pennsylvannia
and Ohio. President Bush could conceivably offset losses in Ohio and
Pennsylvannia with wins in the four "Gore" states. He could
even lose Florida and win if he carries Michigan.
If you like betting on politics I would suggest
you bet on President Bush and then pray. The election with one week
to go is absolutely, totally too close to call.
Last weekend: the situation became quite bizarre--both
sides have resorted to attack ads and charges which make very little
sense. Some Republican 527 organizations would have you believe that
Senator Kerry's election would bring bin laden to power world wide by
early next week--some Democratic organizations are keen about convincing
voters that another Bush term would result in an end to social security,
the immediate restoration of the draft, and general disorder throughout
the world. Democracy is a very strange system--elections are not are
most heroic hour but in the end we will peacefully elect a new President
next tuesday and as strange as it may seem now, the Republic will survive
indeed it will even flourish and we shall proceed with the business
of providing mankind with "its last best hope on earth." The
"shining city on the hill" will still be the world's beacon
of hope, freedom, and prosperity.
Cheers, Dr. Mike Stoddard
Campaign 2004
Campaign 2004 proved to be another round in a
series of rather amazing modern American elections. President George
W. Bush won reelection in a surprisingly convincing manner on November
2, 2004 after months of a campaign that seemed “too close to call.”
Campaign 2004 in the end was not the closest election in American politics,
not nearly as close as the campaigns of 1960, 1968, 1976 or 2000, but
it was perhaps the closet race for the longest time in American history.
In the end what appeared to be a race that would end in nearly a tie
turned out to be in fact a substantial mandate for George W. Bush. The
national polls were essentially accurate if one takes into account their
margins of error. The exit polls on the day of the election were totally
inaccurate almost reaching the bizarre.
The President won more popular votes than any person in American history.
His margin of victory involved winning 286 electoral votes spread among
30 states as well as expanding his parties control in the US Senate
and the US House of Representatives. Interestingly, no incumbent President
has expanded his margin of party control in the Congress since President
Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide of 1936. George W. Bush started
his second term in a remarkably different fashion than his first term
in 2000. The President had risked his enormous popularity of 2003 and
indeed his entire presidency on the invasion of Iraq. When the US and
the Coalition forces found no weapons of mass destruction, which to
many had become the primary justification of the invasion, the Bush
presidency was clearly in trouble.
Ironically the weapons of mass destruction had never been the President’s
primary concern about Iraq but had been defined as the major war goal
by the UN. Had President Bush lost in 2004 he might have wondered often
about the wisdom of seeking UN approval in 2003. At the time it seemed
politically and diplomatically appropriate but it also changed the nature
of the debate. The US Congress had approved its War Resolution focusing
on the overall threat posed by Saddam Hussein not weapons of mass destruction.
The President tried valiantly during the campaign to tie the War on
Terror to the War in Iraq—he was not entirely successful. Senator
Kerry managed rather skillfully to separate the issues and on balance
managed to “convince” the American people he was qualified
to be a Wartime president.
But in the end, George W. Bush, who has benefited throughout most of
his political career by being underrated, survived the debates, survived
a vigorous and well-managed challenge, survived the concerns of Iraq,
survived the lingering worries about the US economy and emerged on November
3 as a popular, wartime President ready to face the considerable challenges
of the future. It should be noted that campaign 2004 was commonly referred
to as a horribly destructive, divisive campaign in a nation deeply divided
into two warring camps. A more reasonable historical judgment would
be that the US was able once again to conduct a peaceful national election
which highlighted the difference between the two major parties but also
revealed considerable areas of agreement. Importantly, Senator Kerry
in his concession speech vowed to assist the President in his military
campaign in Iraq and in his battle with global terrorism. The President
in his victory speech was magnanimous and statesmanlike but highlighted
what seems to be his greatest strength—an almost unbelievable
determination to pursue and destroy America’s enemies. President
Bush will no doubt make considerable efforts to reach across the divide
of American politics but in the end seemed to be signaling, not surprisingly,
that he had his mandate and would love the cooperation of all parties
and all allies but that would be far less important than accomplishing
his goals. In the spirit of Texas politics the message of November 2004
seemed to be: “I would love your cooperation but if that is not
possible then get out of the way.” Perhaps revealingly the President
announced the day after the election: “I have earned political
capital and I intend to spend it.”
Note: the exit polls caused great consternation and confusion and nearly
produced an election disaster. About noon on the West Coast exist poll
results were “leaked” to the press and the internet indicating
that Senator Kerry was on the road to a massive victory. Exist polls
have traditionally been quite reliable. Both national campaign organizations
were affected. The Kerry team truly believed in the early evening that
they had won a convincing victory. The Bush organization was skeptical
but demoralized. Even Fox News was working out the Kerry cabinet during
their afternoon shows. Shortly after the Florida polls closed, political
analysts discovered that the exit polls were massively wrong. We will
never what effect the rumors had on the election but all television
networks may want to remember in the future that exist polls were never
designed as predicators and came very close to bringing about an electoral
disaster in campaign 2004.
Personal Note: I accompanied 50 SDSU students to Las Vegas for the election.
They worked on the Bush campaign about 14 hours per day for five days.
They were part of a team of volunteers totally 250 who personally visited
134,000 homes and phoned over 250,000 voters. All seemed to have a marvelous
time—they particularly enjoyed their free suites in the five-star
Venetian hotel. All were part of one of the most unusual aspects of
election—voter turnout across the nation was up and dramatically
increased in the battleground states. Normally increases in voter turnout
benefit the Democrats. In 2004 the advantage went to the Republicans.
Both Democrats and the Republicans had great ground game organizations
but the Republican organization, inspired and led by Karl Rove, was
perhaps the best and most effective in US political history. Ironically
Nevada was the state that put the President over the top—the SDSU
students were of course convinced that they single handedly reelected
the President of the United States.
PRESIDENTIAL STATISTICS
1. President Bush won 51 percent of the national vote.
2. Senator Kerry received 48 percent.
3. Ralph Nader received 1 percent.
4. President Bush won 30 states with 20 going to Senator Kerry.
5. Voter turnout among eligible voters reached nearly 60 percent—the
highest since the election of 1960.
6. President Bush won all the “red” states with exception
of New Hampshire.
7. Senator Kerry won all the “blue” states with the exceptions
of Iowa and New Mexico.
8. Approximately 115 million Americans voted—Bush 59 million;
Kerry 55 million.
9. Senator Dashle was defeated as the Democratic minority leader of
the US Senate.
10. The Republicans increased their majorities in both the Senate and
the House.
11. President Bush became the first presidential candidate to win more
than 50% of the popular vote since 1988.
12. The President became the first President re-elected while gaining
seats in the House and the Senate since 1936 and the first Republican
to do so since 1924.
13. The President received seven million more votes than he did in 2000.
14. President Bush received a higher percentage of the popular vote
than any Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.
CONCLUSIONS
1. The election of 2004 was not as close as expected.
2. Almost all the “red” states (Republican) stayed in the
Bush column—nearly all of the “blue” states (Democratic)
remained with Senator Kerry--only New Hampshire went from red to blue
and Iowa and New Mexico from blue to red.
3. The Republican base of the South, the Prairie states, and the mountain
states held while the Democratic base, New England and the West Coast
was maintained.
4. Turnout increased to 115 million voters—about 60 percent of
those eligible
5. Turnout, which normally favors the Democrats, favored the Republicans
which means that the Republican ground game put together by the “architect,”
Karl Rove outdistanced the Democrats.
6. The election was primarily a referendum on George W. Bush.
7. The election, much to Senator Kerry’s consternation, remained
focused primarily on the Global War on Terror and the US military campaign
in Iraq.
8. There was an increase in young voters but it turned out to be quite
marginal.
9. Evangelical Christians added about four million voters to their ranks.
10. President Bush substantially increased his support among Hispanic
voters to approximately 42 percent. The Hispanic vote for the President
in Florida was 55%.
11. There were minor increases of African American voter to President
Bush from 9% to 11%.
12. Women were almost evenly divided between President Bush and Senator
Kerry thus neutralizing the “gender gap.” Married women
voted roughly 55% to 45% for the President which represented the great
gain for the President. These voters have consequently been tagged the
"security moms."
13. The undecided vote and late-deciding voters went to President by
a small margin dashing many predictions that these voters would break
about 90% to Senator Kerry.
14. Senator Kerry convinced Americans he would be a better steward of
the national economy.
15. President Bush convinced Americans that he would be a better commander
in chief.
16. The President prevailed in the contest between foreign policy and
domestic affairs.
17. Campaign 2004 was a wartime election with a wartime president prevailing.
18. Campaign 2004 represented the eleventh straight presidential race
won by either a Republican conservative or a Southern Democrat.
19. The Republican majority in the US Senate was increased to 55.
20. The Republican majority in the House was increased to 234.
21. Jewish voters for the President increased from 19% to 24%.
22. President Bush “lost” the debates but won the election.
23. President Bush, who won seven million more popular votes than he
received in 2000, proved to be the more appealing candidate.
24. The Bush family, particularly the First Lady, proved to be a great
assest to the President's bid for reelection.
Campaign 2004 will be remembered as a fairly strong
endorsement of the politics and style of George W. Bush. Senator Kerry
campaigned most effectively but was not entirely able to free himself
from being stereotyped as a New England liberal. The last eleven elections,
covering nearly 50 years, have been won by either conservative Republicans
or Southern Democrats. It seems clear once again that the Democratic
party will find it almost impossible to reach the White House from the
left. The Republican strategy of focusing on their own voter turnout
was enormously successfully. Registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats
at the polls for the first since 1928. Finally, Campaign 2004 may be
very historic as America moves toward an entirely different view of
international politics and its role in the world. The Presidential campaign
of 2004 was more about September 11, 2001 than November 2, 2004.
AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE
Somewhat astoundingly the President of the United States announced the
day after the election the following goals, among others, for his second
term.
1. Reform Social Security
2. Reform Medicare
3. Streamline and reform the IRS
4. Continue advances in education
5. Move toward a more conservative judiciary
6. Make recent tax cuts permanent
7. Reduce the deficit by 50%
8. Promote democracy in Afghanistan
9. Stabilize the military situation in Iraq and establish a democratic
regime
10. Prohibit the development of Iranian nuclear weapons
11. Eliminate the North Korean nuclear program
12. Resurrect the Middle East peace process
13. Win the Global War on Terror
14. Promote further advances in Homeland Security
15. Promote further advances in the US domestic economy
16. Be certain Dr. Stoddard has a wonderful time at the Inauguration.
CAMPAIGN 2000-"The Civics Lesson From Hell"
By
Dr. Mike Stoddard
|
|
I
thought it might provide a good laugh in later years to jot down some
thoughts about the election of 2000. I suppose we can all agree that
this was one of the most bizarre moments in the history of the Republic.
There was of course the usual level of madness swirling over a nation
dominated by electronic communications and talking monkeys on TV trying
to fill 24 hour news programs.
WHAT HAPPENED:
Here is what
appears to have happened: 105,000,000 Americans voted on Nov. 7, 2000
dividing their votes almost evenly between Gov. George Bush of Texas
and Vice-President Al Gore of Tennessee. The Vice-President will probably
end up with about 280,000 more in the popular contest which is of course
less than 1/10 of one percent which may make this presidential election
the closest election in the history of all democracies throughout all
of history. It is still possible that George W. Bush may win the popular
vote with nearly two million absentee ballots still being counted. The
popular vote will be a great debating point throughout history but is
seriously flawed in two ways-candidates do not try to win the national
popular vote and therefore gear their campaigns entirely to the electoral
vote; and the popular vote is not accurately recorded in that some states
do not even count absentee ballots once the electoral vote for their
state is established.
Gov. Bush, if he wins
Florida, will have at the end 271 electoral votes-one more than the
minimum required. Vice President Gore will have 267 electoral votes.
Although Gov. Bush won 30 states he will win by the closest margin in
the history of the electoral system.
The Senate of United
States will end up to be 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats which of course
means all the committees and the committee chairmen will be controlled
by the Republicans as the new Vice-President, Dick Cheney, will provide
the 51st Republican vote. Sen. Lott will remain the majority leader
but in all likelihood will approach his leadership quite unusually.
I would assume that staff funding in the Senate will be allocated using
the 51-49 percent formula instead of the usual 60-40 arrangement. Also
it may very well turn out that the Republicans allow some committees
to be chaired by Democrats. Please note the Senate has never been divided
evenly before so all of this is uncharted waters. The House will be
221 to 212 to 2 with the Republicans in a majority. They will control
the committees and therefore the agenda and therefore Congress' greatest
power, money. One little time bomb, however, needs to be emphasized.
The Republican majority in the Senate will hold only as long as Senators
Thurmond, Stevens, and Helms can stay alive. They are in order; 98,
77, and 80 years old. They are all ill. The all live in states with
Democratic Governors who will with relish replace them with D2emocrats.
If any combination should die or become too ill to go on, the power
of the Senate will be transferred to the Democrats and Sen. Daschle
will replace Senator Lott as majority leader.
WHAT WAS NEXT:
The curious and
slightly mad activities, which transpired in Florida, need to be noted.
George Bush after several strange and totally unacceptable election
calls by the national media appeared to win Florida by 1700 votes on
Nov. 7 thus putting him over the top. Millions of Americans saw the
national networks proclaim Gov. Bush to be the 43rd President of the
United States. The world was I suspect thrilled, fascinated, and relieved.
Al Gore called and congratulated the Governor. Several foreign governments
including France, Great Britain, and Russia called Austin with their
congratulations. Within 60 minutes the networks explained that they
were unsure about Florida. The Vice President called an amazed Governor
and retracted his concession and the "war of the roses" was on.
Under Florida law any
election within ½ of 1 percent may be recounted. The Gore campaign made
the decision, perhaps fatally flawed decision, to ask for recounts in
three heavily Democratic counties-Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach.
That process was started. It was unofficially completed on Nov. 9 with
Governor Bush's margin of victory shrinking to 329 total votes of the
nearly 6 million votes cast throughout the state. The overseas ballots
were still uncounted and were not tallied unit Nov. 17. Bush won a majority
of the absentee ballots leaving him with a lead of 538 votes on Nov.
17. There was considerable controversy about the absentee ballots in
that several Democratic operatives had encourage Democratic precinct
officials to find ways to disallow military ballots. General Norman
Schwarzkopf and General Colin Powell weighed into the battle.
Thus on Nov.
9 the nation and the world braced itself for what they thought would
be a one week wait to find out who their new President would be. The
odds favored Gov. Bush but the Gore campaign manager with former Sec.
of State Christopher by his side announced that whatever the recount
results, the Vice-President intended to resolve the matter in court.
On Nov. 11 the plot thickened. Florida's Secretary of State, Kathryn
Harris, had indicated she was going to certify Gov. George Bush the
winner of the Florida electors as prescribed by law on Nov. 14. The
only qualification would be that the absentee ballots would be added
to the totals for final certification. The Florida Supreme Court intervened
without an appeal being offered. Quite on their own, the State Supreme
Court rule that the Secretary of State could not certify a winner until
Nov. 26. Furthermore, the State High Court ruled that the hand counts
in three Democratic counties were authorized.
The three counties
started to recount their ballots. The Democrats, because they were the
"losers" of the first count and the machine recount were allowed to
ask for such recounts. They assumed that the recount would provide them
with the lead. Former Secretary of State James Baker, the Bush grand
strategist in Florida petitioned a Federal Court to stop the recount.
The lawsuit was based on the calculation that hand counts are subject
to mischief and/or mistakes and that it would be patently absurd to
allow hand counts in only three of 67 counties. His injunction was denied
but the US 11th district court did not rule out hearing the case at
a later date indicating there were federal concerns about what was transpiring
in Florida.
The three-ring
circus of Nov. 7 was replaced by the 10-ring circus of Nov. 14. Special
consideration to the legal battle needs to be noted. First, after American
elections are completed the only redress possible is in the Courts.
Federal and State Courts throughout our history have been most reluctant
to get involved in electoral politics for all the obvious reasons-the
most important of which is that election day can never be recreated
and normal methods of the settlement of grievances are impossible. Also,
if Florida Courts should try to correct problems in Florida then Courts
throughout the nation would be bombarded with other suits demanding
redress and the entire electoral process would be threatened. In addition,
there were deadlines at hand, which the Courts could not entirely control.
The electors were to be certified by Dec. 12 and the Electoral College
was scheduled to meet on Dec. 18 although these dates were ordered by
statute and not the US Constitution and therefore can be delayed by
the Courts. The Inauguration of the new President was scheduled for
Jan. 20, 2001 as dictated by the Constitution and that date is absolutely
not changeable. If the Electoral College cannot meet or make a decision
by then, the Congress will select an interim president to serve only
until they do meet. If the Electoral College meets and cannot reach
270 then the matter will be given to the House of Representatives, which
will vote, one vote per state. The Senate will follow by electing a
Vice-President. In both casses, the interim president case and the case
of the House taking over, Republicans would in all likelihood have prevailed.
The Congress could be expected to follow partisan lines with the exception
of some southern Democrats possibly joining the Republicans. It would
have been most unlikely that any Republicans would have revolted away
from their Party. Gov. Bush won 30 states and you may rest assured they
would have selected him to be the next President.
If an interim
President is required I may very well have to serve. I am regarded as
not threatening and not bright and therefore would be a perfect choice.
I would unfortunately only be able to serve for a short time because
I hate cold weather and have done my service in Washington, D.C. and
would return to San Diego even if the world collapsed while I was boarding
the plane. If the House and Senate delay the process beyond Jan. 20
the Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert, would be President until the
impasse is resolved.
The recount of Nov.
17 was completed with Gov. Bush still in the lead. The Florida Sec.
of State, Kathryn Harris, convened the Florida election commission at
5 p.m. on that date as she had been instructed to do by the Florida
Supreme Court. The commission certified Gov. Bush the winner of Florida's
25 electoral votes. What many had hoped would provide an end to this
astounding set of developments only fueled the fires of the legal battle.
The Florida Supreme
Court had ruled after the original Nov. 9 machine recount that Florida
would not certify a winner until Nov. 17. By a vote of 7 to 0 the all
Democratic Supreme Court had moved into the battle in a major way. After
the Nov. 17 certification was completed both sides moved to new legal
wars. The Gore campaign sued for an extension of the deadline in that
Dade Miami had refused to recount their votes proclaiming they could
not finish in time. Palm Beach also missed the 5 p.m. Nov. 17 deadline.
The Gore petition for an extension was denied 7-0 by the Florida Supreme
Court. The Gore team then moved back to the lower courts in Florida
appealing the entire hand recount procedure. Meanwhile the Bush campaign
appealed to the US Supreme Court, which quite astoundingly agreed to
hear the case.
By Dec. 1 the matter
was unresolved. The US Supreme Court met in an extraordinary session
on Dec. 1 hearing a 90-minute presentation from both sides. The Court
seemed torn between the "liberal" wing of the Court- Justices Stephens,
Breyer, and Ginzburg-and the "conservative" wing of the Court-Justices
Scalia, Thomas, and Chief Justice Rheinquist. The key to the decision
appeared to the swing vote-Justices O'Connor and Kennedy. The more liberal
Justices seemed to side with the Gore position that the Florida Supreme
Court had acted properly in delaying the original certification thereby
allowing hand counts. The conservative Justices seemed to side with
the Bush position that the Florida Supreme Court had overreached its
power and was in fact interfering with Article 2 of the US Constitution.
Article 2 calls for the electors of the states to be chosen by state
legislatures not by state courts and/or state constitutions. Regardless
of the Supreme Court, the Gore campaign petitioned the lower court in
Florida. Judge N. Sanders Sauls was asked to review the possibility
of recounting all of the three counties as indicated by the Florida
Supreme Court the week before. The time period of Dec. 1 to Dec. 12
proved to be fascinating with decisions by the US Supreme Court, the
Florida Supreme Court, the 11th US Appellate Court, and the three Florida
Circuit Courts.
D-DAY:
On Dec. 4 the
"civics lesson from hell" took two more surprising almost amazing turns.
The US Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the Florida Supreme Court had exceeded
its authority by changing the certification date of Florida Sec. of
State Harris. The US Supreme Court vacated the Florida Supreme Court
decision and remanded it back to the Florida Court for review reminding
them rather bluntly that the right to choose electors is a function
of Art. 2 of the US Constitution and has nothing to do with the Florida
Constitution or Florida Courts. It was not an outright victory for the
Bush campaign in that the Florida Court would be allowed to correct
their error and resubmit to the US Supreme Court. It was, however, not
a good omen for Vice President Gore in that the Bush position before
the court had been vindicated.
Two hours later
Judge N. Sanders Sauls, the Florida Judge in Tallahassee, made his decision.
Judge Sauls was hearing the Gore appeal to hand-count the Miami Dade
ballots for the first time, to change the procedures regarding the counting
procedures in Palm Beach, and to allow additional Gore votes of Nassau
county. Judge Sauls rejected all of the arguments presented by the Gore
grand strategist, David Boies. ABC News reported the story to the nation
as follows: Judge Sauls said to the four requests made by the Gore campaign:
"no, no, no, no." The Vice President's team promised to appeal to the
Florida Supreme Court but the clock was running as Dec. 12 loomed larger
and larger as the final date for certifying the Florida electors. The
one-two punch of Dec. 4 seemed to be a blow from which the collapsing
Gore campaign could not recover.
D-DAY PLUS 1:
The "endless
election" went into a kind of constitutional and legal form of outer
space on Dec. 8. Early in the morning Judge Lewis and Judge Clark, both
Democratic appointees, of Martin and Seminole Counties rejected the
citizen lawsuits demanding that more than 14,000 absentee ballots from
their counties be disqualified. The suit was based on complaints that
Republican operatives had illegally assisted Republican absentee voters
by adding their voter ID numbers to envelopes. No one argued that the
ballots themselves had been altered. Judges Martin and Lewis ruled that
these votes would not be disqualified. Because most the votes could
be assumed to be Bush votes the Bush campaign was ecstatic-many Republican
strategists had quietly worried that the Martin, Seminole county lawsuits
in the end might prove the most disastrous for Gov. Bush. With these
two victories in hand the Bush campaign awaited a decision by the Florida
Supreme Court regarding the Gore campaign's appeal of Judge Sauls' rulings
on hand counts. The Bush campaign anticipated a legal "hat trick" and
felt confident the end was finally in sight. The national media picked
up the scent and the nation waited for the elusive end game. The networks
reported probably accurately that Vice President Gore would concede
the minute the Florida Supreme Court upheld Judge Sauls.
The roller coaster
ride for both campaigns started anew in the afternoon. The Florida Supreme
Court ruled 4-3 that Judge Sauls had misinterpreted the law and reversed
most of his decision. The Florida High Court ordered a hand-count of
the undervotes (votes where the machines picked up no vote for President)
throughout the entire state. Interestingly, the Chief Justice of the
Florida Supreme Court represented the minority arguing stridently that
his Court was moving into areas without any legal basis at all and that
the US Supreme Court would almost certainly reverse all they were doing.
Chief Justice Wells added that he believed the Florida Supreme Court
by changing dates, changing procedures, and changing rules after the
election was bringing on unnecessarily a constitutional crisis which
would do great harm to his state, Court, and nation. Judge Sauls removed
himself from the reversal and Judge Lewis was called in to supervise
the statewide recount. The Florida High Court gave no specific guidelines
as to how the recount would be managed other than to indicate that the
local canvas boards were to determine as clearly as possible the intent
of the voters.
On the morning of Dec. 9
the 67 counties of Florida started their recounts. A fairly chaotic
procedure began slowly but began to pick up steam by mid-morning encouraging
those who thought this final procedure might be completed by Dec. 12.
The Gore campaign, which seemed doomed the day before, was reinvigorated.
The Vice President and Senator Liebermann reportedly attended a special
prayer session and gave every indication they now believed finally they
were on the road to victory. They hoped and/or assumed that for the
first time since Election Day they might take the lead in Florida. It
seems fairly clear that both Democratic contenders truly believed that
if all the votes in Florida were ever known they would be the winners.
The reaction in Austin was of course exactly the opposite. Gov. Bush
and Secretary Cheney believed they had "won" in Florida several times
and all might be lost at the very last moment. Sec. Baker called the
recount procedure ordered by the Florida Supreme Court, a "sad day for
Florida, a sad day for the nation, and a sad day for our democracy."
Suddenly and to most, quite
unexpectedly the Supreme Court of the United States weighed in shortly
after the recounting started on Dec. 9. In a 5 to 4 decision the nation's
High Court ordered a stop to all recounts. The majority made up of Justices
Rhenquist, O'Connor, Scalia, Thomas, and Kennedy stated that there was
a "substantial probability of success" for the petitioner, Gov. George
Bush, regarding his petition that these procedures were invalid and
that in effect Florida was counting legally questionable votes. Justice
Rhenquist, writing for the majority, argued that counting possibly illegal
votes could do irreparable harm to Gov. Bush meaning in the end such
a procedure, if he were elected, could jeopardize the legitimacy of
his presidency. The US Supreme Court seemed to feel that the Florida
Supreme Court had ignored it's warning of the week before and was embarking
on a course of action which was in contravention of US law and the US
Constitution. The Supreme Court implied that the Florida Supreme Court
was making up law as it was going along. The Supreme Court appeared
to believe that by changing dates and procedures regarding Florida law
the Florida Supreme Court was contravening Article 2 of the US Constitution
and violating US statues, which do not allow US election procedures
to be changed after the votes have been cast.
On Dec. 11 the Supreme
Court heard oral arguments from the Bush and Gore campaigns. Three federal
questions were at stake: 1) did the Florida Supreme Court violate Article
2 of the US Constitution by usurping the legislature's role in the a
US election; 2) did the Florida Supreme Court contravene Article 3,
section 5 of the US Code by rearranging the form of the election after
it had been held; and 3) did the Florida Supreme Court violate the "due
process" protections of the 14th Amendment by a creating an unfair,
arbitrary system of counting, recounting, and tabulation? On Dec. 12
the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in the affirmative. The Florida Supreme
Court had exceeded its authority and violated US law. By federal intervention
the original certification of Gov. Bush as the winner of Florida's 25
elector votes was upheld. The next day the Vice President and Sen. Liebermann
conceded defeat and one of the most interesting, curious, and bizarre
moments of American political history came to a close. Perhaps the end
game came in the only way it could have come. As Sen. Alan Simpson had
predicted: "the nation's highest court decided the election of the nation's
highest office."
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN:
The cynics
will obviously have a wonderful time. They will announce from every
rooftop that the nation is divided so desperately that gridlock in government
is at hand. They will further announce to the world that the American
system doesn't work and that the new President will not be able to govern,
much less lead. They will with perverted relish proclaim that our democracy
is defunct, archaic, and on the brink of ushering in an era of national
disorder. They will be wrong on all counts.
In the
end, the count in Florida was completed in a fairly orderly fashion
notwithstanding Chairman William Daley rattling on about the will of
people as defined by him, the Rev. Jesse Jackson chattering hysterically
about "more for Gore," and Republican charges of a judicial coup de
etat. Gov. Bush won the first count, the second count, the absentee
ballots, and all the counting and recounting from that point on changed
nothing. Most importantly, when on Dec. 12 the final determination of
the US Supreme Court was issued Vice President Gore conceded defeat
and the drama ended. He conceded for three reasons. First, he is a patriot
and an honorable man who has spent his entire life in public service
as did his father. Second, he knows that additional Court fights will
damage the nation, scare the world and produce no change. Third, he
will be preparing his campaign to run for President again and he would
go from titular head of the Democratic Party to national disgrace if
he appeared to be a sour loser putting his own interests above that
of the nation. He no doubt recalled that Andrew Jackson won the popular
vote and lost the electoral vote and returned four years later to serve
as one of America's greatest presidents. He no doubt recalled that Grover
Cleveland went through a similar arrangement. Most importantly, he no
doubt recalled that Richard Nixon heroically stepped aside in 1960 for
the good of the nation when an election was possibly stolen from him.
He no doubt recalled that Gerald Ford resisted the temptation to contest
an election that was amazingly close with all the irregularities, which
accompany all US federal elections. It is very doubtful that Al Gore
would like to be compared historically, unfavorably with President Nixon.
Gov. Bush
will become the 43rd President of the United States on Jan. 20, 2001.
He will serve with honor and distinction. He will in fact be able to
govern very effectively particularly in the area of foreign affairs
where the presidency is at its best and where it is most needed. More
dramatically there is a real possibility that this bizarre drama that
even the most pathetic novelist couldn't have conceived, will turn to
our national advantage. America is divided between rural and urban America-America
is divided between the country music crowd and the cool crowd-America
is divided between those committed to traditional values and those committed
to more diversity and openness-but America is not deeply divided. Campaign
2000 involved few great differences between the candidates or the parties
on major national and international issues. This not the era of Vietnam,
the Great Depression, or the Civil War. Social security and Medicare
are not the stuff of which revolutions are made. It is absolutely impossible
to imagine an individual marching to the barricades displaying a chart
for Medicare reform, which would include prescription drugs.
America
is perfectly arranged for an era of reform and bipartisanship. George
W. Bush may be almost magically, exactly the sort of individual required
for this unique moment in our history. The prestige and mantra of the
presidency will descend on him on Jan. 20 and he will be the world's
president not the Republicans' president. He will personify all the
dreams and hopes of the world. He will be a testament to Lincoln's thought
that American is "man's last best hope on this earth." He will walk
with Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, Reagan, Truman, FDR and
Eisenhower. He will walk with destiny and when he is done the world
be a far better place than it was when the journey started. All free
people everywhere will have one short prayer: thank God for America
and its' new President.
Note: if Vice
President Gore had won the Florida vote and thereby the presidency,
I would have applied exactly the same sentiments to him. I loathe totally
committed partisans and would suggest you refer to me in such terms
at your own peril.
GOING NUCLEAR:
I If the election
of 2000 had not been settled in Florida it would have been resolved
by what many were calling "going nuclear" meaning in a fashion entirely
new and unexpected in American politics. If Florida had ended up with
two sets of electors on Dec. 12, one endorsed by the Courts overturning
the certification and one selected by the Republican dominated Florida
State legislature (house, 77 Republican, 43 Democrats-senate, 25 Republicans,
15 Democrats) both lists would have been sent to the US Congress on
Jan. 5. A joint session of the Congress would have met to deal with
the "crisis." The US Senate's 50 Democrats plus Al Gore as he was Vice
President until Jan. 20 would no doubt have supported the Florida electors
committed to the Vice President. The House with its Republican majority
no doubt would have supported the electors pledged to Gov. Bush. Obviously
an impasse would have been reached.
In the
case of an impasse caused by two competing slates of electors, federal
law calls for the state's Governor to make the final call. Fascinatingly,
Gov. Jeb Bush would have been asked to select his brother as the 43rd
President of the United States. In the case that no one reaches 270
elector votes, the matter would have been referred to the House of Representatives
for the selection of the President. The House would have had 28 delegations
with a Republican majority and 18 delegations with Democratic majorities-four
were tied. Note that the House in selection of the President allows
for one vote per state. The House would in all likelihood have voted
along party lines securing the election of Gov. Bush as the 43rd President
of the United States. Fortunately, in the view of most observers, this
"civics lesson from hell" was avoided.
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